We deserved all what Modi is delivering, 30 years ago! Guess what? That’s where we are heading – 30 years back!

While the government may publish and show only what they want you to see, it’s the very few who can actually feel the reality. Its not just Parle-G, Jet Airways, automobile companies, real estate developers and many more industries who have shut down or are on the verge of collapsing. On this journey which is taking us 30 years behind in the next 10 years, be prepared for many more surprises!

With all due respect to our Prime Minister and his gang of bureaucrats, their intentions are absolutely clean. I must emphasize that their thought process is completely corruption free and the policies have no self-interest. But the bitter truth is that PM and his bureaucrats lack practical experience and knowledge when it comes to running an enterprise. It’s because they never ran any enterprise or didn’t live a life full of business struggles. 

Let me explain better in a layman’s term by giving a very relative example. All of a sudden our PM wakes up and decides that the steering wheel in all the vehicles should be on the left side, as it was discovered and designed by the Americans, followed by 90% of the world, and not on the right side as we have been living with. And his team of honest bureaucrats get on the job and start executing this desire of the PM, without understanding the practical consequences and repercussions of the same! The reason you hear periodic amendments and announcements after demonetisation, GST, PMC Bank fraud is because the bureaucrats were clueless that after changing the steering from right to left, another notification to drive in the right side instead of left was to be issued, wrong side and right side are to be defined again to innocent citizens, how to tackle half driving on the right with left and the other half trying to poke on left with right!

Of course you would experience nothing but chaos throughout the country on all streets, roads, highways and toll ways, with cars approaching heads on and traffic police amidst the jinx pocketing whatever currency you may hand over to keep driving.  Some sorted individuals may decide to not drive amidst such chaos. These are those individuals who are self-sufficient, have to protect their cars and not necessarily have to hustle to earn a living. The government is usually lobbied by such high net worth individuals who give exactly the feedback governments wants to hear, “Sab changa hai”! Some individuals may only drive after hours when the traffic and chaos are the lowest. These individuals are bureaucrats, corporate executives and those salaried individuals who are beyond the fear of losing their jobs and salaries. After hours also refers to their reach which is beyond any common man. As long as they get their paycheque on the 1^st of every month, they don’t give a damn about the state of economy in India! Then there is a huge chunk of population which uses public transport buses to commute. Being a government transport service, they implemented the change of steering wheels from right to left immediately after the PM expressed his desire. These individuals again have no effects of economy, recession or the chaos created since their means of travel is as per the new law! The next are the auto rickshaws and two wheelers, which are in considerable numbers, and form a large vote bank! They are the happiest not because they didn’t have to face the hassle of changing steering orientations, but because their rivals who used to drive in lanes and overtake them in private cars, are going through the trouble and incurring expenses which were not foreseen! When the time comes for some senior ministers to address a press conference or tough journalists, they are well briefed by their bureaucrats that the speech must clarify, “There are only 2 crore motorists who have to change the steering wheels for the benefit of 130 crore Indians!”

But in reality, these 2 crore motorists are the ones who actually run and manage the economy of India and 130 Crore bhakts! During all debates and arguments over demonetization, GST, recession, unemployment and other actual problems, the conclusion is never clear and hence unconsidered. The reason being, the actual sufferers are not always part of those debates and are not able to express their problems. With banks being given a clear mandate to not lend any more money to these businessmen and entrepreneurs, government’s desire is achieved to have such enterprises operate with their own capital and profits. The smart ones with never give up attitude would lay off chunks of employees who were to be salaried through bank loans. Production would be hand to mouth since over stock or surplus was only affordable due to bank loans. Banks will only lend to government enterprises since they are the safest being govt owned. The concept is very good and genuine. It eradicates fake and false production, excess pay rolls, exaggeration and hype of all types. But do we have cushion to soak in the consequences? 

Well, this is where Karma would come into play! Survival of the fittest would be put to test! 

Builders and developers were cruel and their margins on real estates were insane. Time to payback the huge profits you made either by filing bankruptcies or holding on higher interest rates for repaying money borrowed for developing properties which were never required to be built at first place. Indigo airlines is doing an apt job by having almost 50% market share. Govt is promoting Ajay Singh’s SpiceJet to soak in all Jet Airways airplanes, employees and the fittest! A year after Air India is privatised, the fittest of them would stay and the rest would be sent home. So would be the case with Airports Authority Airports being taken over by Adani and other corporates. The fittest and cleanest would stay and the corrupt and tardy would try their level best to provoke unions for their rights! With so many more biscuits and cookies at competitive price, govt has nothing to do with Parle-G! Govt doesn’t want 5,000 shops selling t-shirts and jeans when one large superstore can do the same. Its time for someone like WalMart to take over 5000 vegetable hawkers illegally occupying my footpath and streets, leaving me with no choice but to buy unhygienic uncovered vegetables with no GST and in cash! Transporters and ambitious truck drivers do not need to destroy the industry any further by operating fleet of 1-5 trucks by obtaining vehicle loans and increasing bank’s work by defaulting in most of them, because you were just an ambitious entrepreneur with no experience. Its time for large logistic corporates to employ these entrepreneurs, limit them as drivers of their large fleet, since they abide by all laws and have a FastTag for seamless movement of cargo. There is no need for so much production of cloth which is ultimately exported because Bangladesh and China do a better job and for much less cost! For every industry, government has a set perspective through their chains of bureaucracy ultimately reporting directly to the P.M. They are firm on their mindset and they want only honest, neat and clean enterprises to survive. If you ask these recession-proof entrepreneurs their secret of growth, you would realize that they had cracked the code well in advance.  

The government will spend 100 Lakh Crores without any doubt over infrastructure. If you do the math, it’s about 1 Lakh over 100 Crore Indians. Further dividing it by 20 years which it will take to spend, it’s a mere 5,000 per Indian per year. With heavy GST collections, stricter income tax pools and government selling all their enterprises, this is very much do-able. Also remember, the government gets a minimum of Rs. 10 Lakh Crore just by liquidating their share in public sector enterprises, which again, they are determined to do. Moreover, the bureaucrats are experts in issuing tenders and getting these works done due to strong political will of our PM. 

If you read between the lines, next 20 years are meant for infra companies and all related manufacturers and service providers. The entire economy would rotate around this formula. Government is not to be blamed at all, if they ask you several times to buy one of their airports. You wouldn’t because you cannot afford to, so they will have no choice but to sell it to someone who can afford. You blaming government for making Adani richer is your fault. Can you afford to operate a railway station? Well the one who can is the one government would obviously promote.  Can you buy BPCL? Can you buy Air India? 

The government is determined to do the right things in the right way. The steering wheel should be on the left as it was always meant to be. If the Gandhi family for their political benefits entertained and promoted the steering wheel to be on the right, and you followed it for 70 years and more, it’s your problem. Or a problem of mere 2 crore motorists. The other 100+ Crore Indians are supposed to stay busy with agriculture, caste, Ram Mandir, reservation, Article 370 and other issues, which are more important for them than recession and running the economy!

Captain Ammeet K Agarwal (author of this article) with Prime Minister Narendra Modi